version without pictures printable pdf single page March 12 • March 14
I’m sleeping normally now and feel normal and healthy in every way. How nice that is! Today we are at sea so it is a four lecture day and not much time in between. I saw Petra as we left for breakfast and asked her if I could get rid of this soft mattress for a firmer one. She said yes so I am looking forward to sleeping tonight on a firmer foundation.
Dr. Perry “North Korea’s Bombs and South Korea’s Alliance: Why do they matter to the US?” Technically we are still at war with North Korea and it is a nuclear power. He will focus on the events that he personally has participated in since 1950. He graduated from college in ’50 and waited for his reserve unit to be called up but it never was. He first came to Korea to talk about using our nuclear weapons and Atlee from England came to protest our possible using of them against Korea. We have employed both diplomacy and threats with Korea.
Perry recently attended the NY Philharmonic’s program in North Korea. He was the senior US member there and it was an honor and enjoyment for him. It was a very emotional time and there was not a dry eye in the audience at the end. Perhaps this type of diplomacy will serve us better. Too bad Bush 2 had cut off contact with North Korea until after they exploded nuclear weapon. It was a good sign that both governments agreed to the concert. Both the Star Spangled Banner and the Korean National Anthem were played. It was personal diplomacy at it’s best! He now feels some optimism for the first time in 7 years.
North Korea is more of a basket case than East Germany was. South Korea will face their rescue slowly. North Korea maintains it’s power with extremes. They have a brutal secret police and it is the last country to not know about the outside world. They have 2 TV stations. One extols the regime and one damns the US. He gave the personal experience of taking medical supplies to a Children’s Hospital on one of his visits. He was told that the children asked if he was coming to kill them! Lessons he’s learned: Talking is better than not talking; Personal diplomacy can help; and Personal threats can help keep a creditable force. They want our recognition and respect. We need to sign a peace agreement and open relations with them. They are very fearful of us and want a guarantee that we will talk to them. He was told by North Korea that if we bomb them he will find nuclear weapons going off even in Palo Alto! At least they knew where he lives! North Korea needs nuclear weapons to defend itself.
When Colin Powell said he would follow the Clinton way of dealing with North Korea the next day Bush told him to break off all relations with North Korea. Perry thought this pressure had come from Cheney and Rumsfeld.
Our second lecture was by Jim Fallows and was entitled “The Eight Biggest Questions about China: Keys to the Future’s News.” Fallows is a national correspondent for the Atlantic Monthly and has lived in China since 2006. He was editor of the Crimson at Harvard and a speech writer for President Carter. He’s the author of 7 books. He first visited China 20 years ago with the Esperanto Club. Tonight he will give a slide show before dinner of the China we haven’t seen.
He will speak to us about the most challenging an important questions about China from a western point of view. The first is the paradox over China being a controlled state but at the same time the local police have no rules over the people. China doesn’t like rules. The closer you get to Tiananmen square the more soldiers you see. The government controls the media and the movies. They are draconian when it comes to people forming an organization of any kind. This includes a religious organization. Tibet discussion is quashed. You also can not discuss anything about the corruption of the leading families or about water space or airspace. All else is not controlled by the government. Chinese communism isn’t at all like Russian communism or Cuban communism. Most people can do what they want to do. The question remains is it a strong or weak government?
The second point was to not politicize their political made novelty of economic impact. It is peculiar because so far the impact on the US is more benign than you would imagine. Millions of Chinese have been raised out of poverty and money is coming back to the US. We saw the vibrant parts of China but China is still desperately poor. We get 50% of their national export. It’s now more on its own and US can’t figure it out.
The third point was the strange combination of deftness and clumsiness that is seen here. So far China has stopped just short of these limits and has barely contained the disruptive and explosive parts. There are lots of rich and lots of poor in China. China in not a philanthropic country so the rich don’t help the poor. Clumsiness comes in explaining itself to the outside world. One pop singer recently yelled Tibet at the end of the concert and the government made a big deal and created fear from this. We’ll see how the Olympics go. He’s afraid the government will over react to protests and compound the problem. Foreign correspondents will be given a hard time.
The economy was the next point. Whether, when and how China will take the next economic point up will be watched. Will materials work for China. Will the peasants be enriched by globalization. Will they be able to produce higher value products. This will depend on their soft components. Copyrights need protection. Trust needs to be developed. Their education system is weak because the concentration is at the university level. It’s hard to visualize great development when the press is controlled.
The fifth point was the irrelevance of a lot of US discussion about China. We asked when it will be democratized. This is less interesting to China. They are more interested in feeding their people. There is some small democratization at the village level. We have to learn that we can’t make China do anything.
The sixth point was about the nature of history in China. China is at an old level in world history but their university students have even a shorter memory than ours. They don’t want to be involved in the recent past. One hundred years have been bad. It’s only the last 20 that have shown promise. On the Chinese TV there is always one channel that is devoted to hating Japan. In China’s view we helped save them from Japan.
The seventh point dealt with the delicate nature of ethics. Philosophers are astute about the culture but personal ethical duty to the next person is not strong nationally. Every person getting in an elevator will shut the door and not wait for another to come ! The country is so crowded. At a public level there are no warmer friends than the Chinese but at a private level they care for no one not related. Now there is an ethical revival about studying Confucius. There is also a religious revival.
The eighth point was how is the United States adjusting psychologically to the rise of power in China. China will become more powerful than the US. We need to take China seriously but not become afraid of it. It is not necessary that it becomes a threat to us. The two societies have acted well towards each other and it is hoped this will continue.
He despairs of how the Olympics will be covered. People need to come here to learn. China is now like our mid-west. We need to ramp up our numbers of students coming to China to study. China does little to control their students who have studied abroad unless they want to start a museum!
There will be a slide show at 7 pm tonight.
Our first afternoon lecture was given by John Mroz on “Understanding the Growing of China in a Rapidly Changing World: What Does it Mean for the West?” John founded the East-West Institute 30 years ago and has quietly worked behind the scenes in the hot spots all over the world. He’s worked as a track 2 representative focusing on the US and Soviet Union, with Israel and Palestine etc. He will speak to us about the intention of the Chinese leaders, what bothers the Chinese leaders about the US, and about building trust between US and China.
He described to us a non-meeting as one that we attend and participate in but will later deny that we were even there! There has been remarkable friendship between the leaders of US and China. China wants to have a stable environment with a high GDP and social harmony. The leadership basically engineers who are acceptable.
They are committed to building a middle class. This should be moderately 50% of it’s people. By 2020 the hope is that it’s citizens will make $8-27,000 (roughly where the US was when Kennedy was elected). China does not like our concern with anger and fear. Most people outside the US connect us with being associated with the war on terror. Fifty percent of people in the US think globalization is not good for us. China is concerned about the staying power of our political candidates.
China is an authoritarian nation that denies its people human rights. They believe we have a lack of understanding about China and the world. Why don’t you want to cooperate with us? We don’t give them credit for what they have done in North Korea. They want to be full partners with us but worry about our unilateralism, cold war mentality, and demonization of Asia. China has asked John how they should behave during the Olympics. Their leaders do want to act differently. They put a lot of energy into security. (missed some here as I was dozing)
I had a cup of coffee in the next few minutes to stay awake during the next lecture which was Edmund Mathez speaking on “The How’s ad Why’s of Climate Change and Reasons it will Shape Policy” Mathez was a professor for many years and now works for the Museum of Natural History. He has been studying climate change for years. The climate has been warming. CO2 and temperatures have been at record highs. Sea level is rising. There has been drought and extreme weather. The ocean holds most of the heat. The ocean holds practically all of the carbon. The long term ocean is the 800 pound gorilla in the room! In 1958 there were 303 parts per million. In 2007 there is 380 parts per million.
There were lots of other facts but I’m tired of writing them up and I will defer to Phil’s notes. I always feel that I’m behind. I haven’t had time to write a single postcard or read a single book since arriving!
We had a briefing on a complicated tomorrow with going to Seoul and the DMZ with a special dress code enforced! Had a lovely dinner followed by an operatic evening. I really look forward to ending my day with such beautiful music. So good night. Another wonderful day in paradise! Will we be able to settle for less on the next trip? I think we are totally spoiled. Home all is well on the home front!