version without pictures printable pdf single page March 18 • March 20
Today we are en-route to Hong Kong. After breakfast our first lecture was by Edmund Mathez: “Projections of the Future Climate, Energy and the Role of China.” This is difficult terrain. I last talked about headlines and about matters of observation. We have to do something about it.
Projections of future climate in the 21st century are determined by emissions, and we have the ability to control them. It also is about risk management and temperature. We need to consider solutions. We need a modeled climate (may not simulate the truth). It’s hard to test. We can simulate past climate better. In the 20th century climate-1900-2000 there are many models that reflect the actual climate.
For 2100 there are three emission scenarios that tell us how the future may unfold. We can see how medium, high, and low emissions might play out. We have the ability to manage it. Climate has inertia. There is 0.6 of committed warming. If we held at the 2000 level we still would have warming. What we do today affects 20-30 years ahead so our policies must understand this.
How do we manage? Uncertainty and risk management have to consider the cost of negative consequences, cost of mitigation, and the probability of its outcome. There are reasons for concern. 1) Unique/ threatened systems 2) Extreme events 3) Impacts on regions 4) Impacts on markets 5) Large scale singular events. The probability of each has to be charted.
Say that there is a 50% probability that regions are affected and productivity will decline. There are huge uncertainties in assigning risks. There is no one temperature above which climate change will be dangerous and not dangerous. We can only talk about probabilities. For example a 3 degrees change in the temperature says risks are too great to accept. Energy comes from oil, gas, coal and it equals 87%. Renewables are less than 1% of energy, hydroelectric is 6% and nuclear energy is 6.3%. Electricity is mostly produced by coal: the oil goes to transportation. Though I took more notes their meaning was over my head so I will defer to Phil’s lecture notes!
Dr. William Perry was our next lecturer speaking on “Nuclear Weapons: Are they still an existential danger?” In January, 1993 he received an unwelcome phone call asking him to become Deputy Secretary of Defense. He didn’t want to leave his family, friends, job and stock options. Lee helped him turn it down. But eventually he decided he had made the wrong decision and took it. One year later he was made Secretary of Defense where he was a high target of the media. Before his hearing the Washington Post reported that he was soft spoken and humble and they wondered if these qualities would make a good Secretary of Defense. Senator Byrd noted that humility was a quality held by George Washington, Robert E. Lee and Jesus. He concluded that humility might be an asset though he had never before seen humility in a cabinet officer. Perry reported that his hearing was surreal. He was voted in 98-0. He reported it was all downhill after this!
He was sworn in February of 1994. The Cold War was finally over and the Russians and Americans were euphoric but this happiness wouldn’t last for long. Before there had been a policy of deterrence and containment but he would have to develop a new strategy as these were no longer relevant. He saw that there were six challenges: 1) Loose nukes over 40,000 of them, 2) Nuclear proliferation- needed to control before terrorist got to them. Many countries were threatening to become nuclear- India, Pakistan, Iraq, North Korea, 3) Regional conflicts- Weimar Russia, Rising China, Bosnia, Serbia, Albania and Pakistan and the need to deal with them, 4) Weimar Russia had abandoned communism and was in chaos and we needed to help them, 5) China was exploding in growth and we needed to work with them constructively, and 6) How to maintain the quality and morale of our military. He went on to specifically detail his work in each area but I will leave that to Phil.
Perry is a master at weaving in videos, music, poetry and literature to illustrate his lectures. They are always very moving. One illustration of this was his four visits to Pervomaysk between 1994-1996. He showed a video with him and the Russian and Ukrainian Defense ministers. First the silos were shown, then they were shown being blown up. Next a garden of sunflowers were planted and the last view was of the beautiful field of sunflowers blooming. By the time Perry left office 10,000 weapons had been dismantled and Belarus and Ukraine were nuclear weapon free. He knew at the end his decision to take the job had been a correct one.
It was a mind-expanding experience and he met some of the best people in the world and the military. The Chair of the Joint Chiefs said he had been the troops’ secretary doing more for the enlisted personnel than any previous secretary. That comment meant more to me that receiving the Presidential Medal of Freedom. There is a lot of richness I leave to Phil’s notes. He did say that his experience as Secretary of Defense did not cure his humility. When he returned home and was walking down University Avenue when an old friend stopped to chat and said “Hi, where have you been lately?” After a few weeks he returned to Stanford and it took him only 5 minutes to readjust. Technology and National Security is what he teaches. He continues Track 2 dialogue with the Chinese and frequent testimony with Congress. He’s teamed up with George Shultz, Sam Nunn and Henry Kissinger to eliminate weapons, size of forces and security of weapons and halt production of fissile material. What a pleasure it has been for me to travel three times with this remarkable man!
Don Kendall started giving us disembarkation procedures. After lunch there was one final panel of all the lecturers and their spouses. Their topic was to speak on was “What Advice on Asia Would You Give to the Next President?” I didn’t take notes but it was fun as well as factual. I smiled when Anping said she was surprised how easy it was to talk to a Republican! She had worried about this. Lee Perry matched up all the speakers as new cabinet members. The audience could participate as well.
There was a short meeting for those interested in hearing about the next World Leader’s Symposium. It will go to the Middle East and we left our name at the desk that we are interested in going. It’s next March.
The last group event was put on by the “Perry Players” and has become a tradition that is so very enjoyable. Lee Perry does a telephone conversation about what it was like to be the wife of the Secretary of Defense. It’s very funny and he insists it is based on actual experiences. I think she made it shorter this time but all were laughing. The point being nothing ever goes according to a predictable schedule! Then their son Mark gives us a quiz. Last trip he had a day to prepare but this time he was planning for it for the entire trip. It’s a multiple choice event with projections on the screen. Also very clever ad witty. What a talented family.
We had a last enjoyable dinner with Joan and Tom. Most of our packing was completed before dinner so it just took a little bit of effort to finish and put the bags out before going to bed. I think I stayed up and typed It’s sad in a way to see this great trip come to an end. It’s been delicious, luxurious, and intellectual all in equal measures. It certainly sets a high bar for future trips. We don’t have to be too sad because we are going on to the extension trip to Hanoi tomorrow so we have another adventure to look forward to!