version without pictures printable pdf single page March 21 • March 23
Today is our last day and it was a really full one. We had rain much of the day and how happy I was we had had our Pedi cab ride yesterday because today we would have been wrapped in plastic and pictures would have been difficult.
We breakfasted in the nearest dining room and I took pictures of the hotel to help remember it. After breakfast Phil returned to the room but I worked away at finding the lecture room. I had to carry my wheelchair up three stairs and that is about the maximum I can do by myself.
Our lecture was given by Le Dong Doanh on “Vietnam Economic Reforms and Development: Opportunities and Challenges.” Our lecturer was the former President of the Central Institute of Economic Management (CIEM). He was also a member of the Board of Institute Of Development Studies. He has traveled extensively and has lived in Germany. He is a member of the Think Tank here. He met Bush 1 for talks in Indonesia a number of years ago. Bush gave him a tough morning so he recommended a swim in the afternoon so they could relax and know each other. Sounds like his personal diplomacy is alive and well!
In 1986 reform was implemented and Vietnam moved from a central planning economy into a market economy with socialist orientation. They developed and diversified international economic relations. They started reducing poverty with gradual democratization. These were the pre-conditions to be integrated into the regional and world economy.
In 2007 the population was 82.6 million and the GDP was 71.3 billion in US dollars with a growth rate of 8.5%. This is a modest GDP per capita but they are catching up slowly. Every year they are increasing by 1.1 million people. In the wealthy districts people have one to two children but in the countryside there are many children up to 11 in a family. Basically everyone is free to have as many children as they want when they want though one to two are suggested by the government. It is not enforced as in China. One mother in the countryside was asked how she kept track of her children. She replied that she counted 22 feet at night and felt to see if anyone had a fever!
In 2007 Vietnam joined the World Trade Organization (WTO). They are sixth in the world for foreign investment. In December 7, 2007 the US in one year had invested 5.4 billion dollars. Now in the next 12 months the US will invest 21 billion dollars or a 28% growth. Poverty has declined from 18% in 2006 to 14.7% in 2007. Vietnam is 105th among 177 economies in 2007. There are many poor people in the mountainous regions. Those working in agriculture are declining as industry in the private sector is gaining. Vietnam is a country that has reformed gradually without outside help until 1993 when the US started helping them. They now have a market friendly system with high economic growth.
They have always had a difficult time with China. China has attacked Vietnam 13 different times. In 2000 there was a bilateral trade agreement with the US and in 2007 they joined the WTO. Negotiations on FTA with Japan and with Indonesia are only beginning now with an integration process. Now there are 260,000 registered companies. The size and sophistication of them is increasing rapidly. There are many problems in corporate governance. They pretend to be smaller than they are. Their share of the private sector is now 60% of the GDP. Only 50% can get bank credit. Most businesses still have a family-type management.
There are 8 state owned “conglomerates” directly responding to the Prime Minister who shares 80% of the total assets of the state sector. There is a very low return rate. There are unclear legal status and monitoring regulations. The infrastructure needs to improve. Yesterday we saw huge ditches being dug for a new sewer system.
The young population wants to earn more money. They are software and fashion conscious. There is a long tradition on the importance of education but the system is poor. There aren’t enough schools so some students attend in the morning and others in the afternoon. There are 64 provinces all with the same laws but there is a great variety in the implementation of the laws.
There is a strongly growing security market that exports shoes, oil, and ?. 24% of it goes to the US. Vietnam has a big deficit with China. Vietnam wants to expand it’s borders. They have had bad relations with China for 2000 years. Mao was tricky to work with but he did provide two corridors to give Vietnam connections to seaports. Vietnam mainly exports clothing, crude oil, coffee, and pepper. The US exports aircraft from Boeing. Vietnam has a trade surplus now.
In 2007 inflation was getting worse. Now they are stronger on foreign investments. About 35 out of every 100 people have telephones. There is a higher internet penetration. In the cold season this year 60,000 to 100,000 buffalo died and they lost lots of vegetables. In 1980 the poverty rate was 70%. By 2002 it was down to 29% and in 2004 it was 2%.
Some weaknesses are in law enforcement and transparency. There is slow progress but we are still under the international level. We need to improve our educational system. There is low efficiency of SOE’s slow reform and equalization. We must improve in the time it takes to start a new business. Our labor costs are too high. Construction workers are immigrants. The price of real estate is high. Our infrastructure needs improving. A worker in the clothing field makes $110-140 per month. Those in electronics make more.
A question was asked about the qualifications needed to serve in the diplomatic service. You must graduate from the university, pass an exam, and speak one foreign language. They have offices in 128 countries. A question was asked about their relationship with Cambodia. It is friendly. Vietnam helped get rid of Pol Pot and is now withdrawing. They produce similar crops so are in competition. Cambodia is growing faster and now have discovered oil. Question about oil refineries here. We have found oil offshore but China is claiming it and is trying to work through British Petroleum to freeze Vietnam out. We may build a refinery in central Vietnam. Now we import from China, Singapore, and Cambodia.
Does your government encourage investment from China?
China is moving some factories here because it is cheaper. But China is diversifying to other countries as well.
Does the average Vietnamese own property?
No they lease the land for 50-90 years from the State. Buyers are plentiful and private parties are connecting.
Our next event was to board our bus and head in the rain to Ho Chi Minh’s Mausoleum. It was like approaching Tiananmen Square but not as large and there were long lines of people waiting in the rain. They sort of poked around my wheelchair and said we had to use theirs. Finding someone to bring it was the issue. We sat around for quite a while. Finally our guide returned to see what had happened and one was found and the exchange was made. It offered our group a place to store all their bags and backpacks that Gordon had to watch for us while we went into the building. You could take nothing with you. Once inside four guards carried me up and down many flights of stairs in the wheelchair! I felt sorry for them for all their hard work! I also felt a bit like a pampered queen! Viewing the body was akin to seeing Stalin and Mao. This man is revered here so I’m glad we got to come. We could get our cameras out at the other end and take a few pictures back while we were waiting for our group. We’d been given preferential treatment.
Then we walked through a park-like setting to view from afar the Presidential Mansion that Ho Chi Minh never lived in. He was a simple man and we saw the very small house that he did live in plus the garage with his two cars. We walked past a pagoda-like temple that is where young couples come to pray for a baby. I said a prayer. Phil went back to go through it while I sought a squat WC. Pat came with me in case I needed help. Turns out I didn’t. Bought a postcard showing Ho Chi Minh and off we went to catch the bus to the Hanoi Hilton.
The Hanoi Hilton is the prison that John McCain spent 6 years in. As we toured the grim cells I thought of Sidney Rittenberg and his experiences. The cells are small and I remember he had to sleep on his back on a board without moving all night. That would be torture for me. They had rooms with models of soldiers sitting on the planks. Other rooms displayed pictures and write ups of the prison. There was also a picture of John McCain visiting. The doors are very heavy. A grim and bleak place and more dreary in the rain.
Next we took the bus to a new restaurant and it turned out to be both beautiful and delicious! We haven’t had anything but excellent meals here. Phil got his own menu printed up with his name on it!
Several wanted to skip the History Museum so we dropped them off on the way. The museum was well done and had artifacts that were from years BC. I enjoyed it very much but my body was tired and I didn’t climb the stairs to the second story. Instead I found the outside gift shops and spent all our dongs plus $4 or a total of $14 buying chop stick holders, a woven shawl, a panda fan, and a lovely lacquered box with coasters inside. Quite a bargain. We had about an hour’s rest before we went out to the last supper. I even did a bit of packing.
This time dinner was up a flight of 73 stairs: more than getting to Eliyahu’s house! I made it with a rest a one landing to let most of the group go ahead of me. We had cocktails under a roof at the top with open sides. It was pretty and Phil had saved me a seat. Trearty, our Harvard guide, saw to it that I got two gins and tonics so I perked up and enjoyed the evening. We had musical entertainment — five musicians on oriental instruments played through out our dinner and five dancers who danced with fans and hats did just a few dances. Very festive for our last night. The dinner was terrific and I started down ahead of the others taking pictures as I went!
We finished our packing and I got only as far as the lecture notes before going to bed. Was up practically every hour and got up at 5 to finish this up. The alarm should be going off soon. We depart at 8 a.m. for our first flight to Hong Kong with a 3-hour layover before our flight to LAX. We should be home around 3 p.m. tomorrow.
We enjoyed this fast trip to Hanoi and enjoyed our activities here. It was quite a contrast from the other countries we visited. It’s a city rising out of poverty and having to build everything up. The people look good and are clothed well. They whiz around on their scooters that can cost from $1,000 to $7,000. Cars are beyond the means of most families. So goodbye Vietnam and South Pasadena here we come! It’s been a fabulous two trips!